In short
For every football match, Fanio gives who is most likely to win (the three percentages: home win, draw, away win) and the most likely score. Alongside that, we display the odds from the 12 betting sites licensed in France.
When a betting site offers an odd that pays more than the probability calculated by Fanio, we highlight it as a High odd. Many matches have no high odd: when no odd stands out, we say so.
How we calculate
- Team strength and recent form. For each match, our calculation looks at past results across 40 leagues, home and away strength, recent form, rest days, and scoring chances.
- Odds movement. A few reference sites adjust their odds first; others follow, sometimes hours later. We blend our team strength calculation with those movements to estimate the three probabilities (home, draw, away) and the most likely scores.
- Comparison with the 12 French sites. We compare the odds of the 12 sites licensed in France with our probability calculation. If an odd pays clearly more than our probability estimate, we highlight it.
How often we are right
Every prediction is recorded before kickoff on the Track record page, and compared month by month with betting site odds on the Comparison page. Nothing is ever deleted after the fact.
Independence
No result is ever guaranteed. Football is full of surprises; even a heavy favorite can lose. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.